$1B Withdrawals Signal $40,000 Rally

• Matrixport’s $40k prediction for Bitcoin is on course as data shows investors resort to long-term strategy.

• It is reported that $1.4 billion worth of Bitcoin has so far been withdrawn from exchanges for direct custody. 

CNF recently reported on Matrixport’s prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) has a 90 percent probability of hitting $40k before the year ends. As of press time, the asset was trading at $38,750.46 after surging by 1.2 percent in the last 24 hours. Its bullish score is currently fixed at 77/100. According to Matrixport, the asset may hit $63k in April 2024 before the much-anticipated halving event. Interestingly, current data support this prediction. 

According to data from Glassnode, investors are currently in direct custody of the asset, indicating a bias for a long-term holding strategy. The data shows that 37,000 BTC, worth $1.4 billion has so far been withdrawn from exchanges since November 17. This development is a sign of strong demand and weakened selling pressure. Many reasons can be attributed to this including the expected spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund approval predicted to happen by January 10.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission recently made an early decision on Franklin Templeton’s bid. According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, this looks like a plan to approve all ETF applications on the same date.

Wow. SEC went super early on Franklin. They weren’t due for another decision until Jan 1. Notably, Franklin is the only issuer who didn’t submit an updated [Form] S-1 (registration of asset-backed security) yet. Wonder if that has any impact here…Going super early on Franklin today (and potentially Hashdex coming too?) would set things up for a full wave of approvals in early January.

More on the Bitcoin Price Analysis

Some analysts have also attributed the exchange outflows to the guilty plea of Binance and the stepdown of its CEO Changpeng Zhao. The rising lawsuits against exchanges are reportedly creating insecurities among investors, forcing them to take custody in their own hands. 

Over the years, exchange outflows have been accompanied by local price lows while supporting a medium price surge according to analysts. A quick look at the market data shows that the general market cap surged by $1.5 trillion. This means $400 billion has been added to the market since October.

Many investors are expecting that the central bank will cut interest rates. According to Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller, there would be a good argument for rate cuts in the coming months if inflation continues to decline. 

This has motivated the prediction that more capital may be attracted to the market and cause volatility in speculative assets. 

Anthony Rousseau, head of brokerage at TradeStation commented:

The Federal Reserve has paused its rate hiking cycle and central banks around the world are following. It’s plausible to believe we have reached the heights of this tightening cycle. For risk assets to get a sustained bid we will need to see a path forward with lower rates and an end to Quantitative Tightening. We are potentially entering 2024 as an opportunity for net positive liquidity for the markets. Bitcoin is a pure reflection of net liquidity in the markets, and we would need to see positive liquidity to support any substantial bullish activity.

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