spot Bitcoin ETF launch will not impact BTC price

On Jan 1, 2024

VanEck advisor Gabor Gurbacs does not expect the launch of Bitcoin (BTC) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to impact Bitcoin price much.

In a post to X, financial guru Gabor Gurbacs noted that while the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF will not greatly impact the price of BTC, it will significantly impact capital flows into the cryptocurrency sector.

Bitcoin ETFs are widely expected to bring in trillions of dollars over the long term, but Gurbacs believes they will not move the needle that much in the short-term.

In my view, people tend to overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. I think maybe a few $100mm flows (mostly recycled) money.
Long term, people tend to underestimate the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs. If history is any guide, gold is worth studying as a parallel. https://t.co/6vvkA9aC09
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) December 31, 2023

“Bitcoin is forcing its own capital markets systems and products well beyond the ETF, and that’s not priced in. The question is not what BlackRock adopts, but what Bitcoin company is the next BlackRock.”
Gabor Gurbacs, VanEck advisor

Gurbacs also believes that the initial impact of the Bitcoin ETF is vastly overestimated – estimating that net inflows could only amount to about $100 million of “mostly recycled” money from large institutional investors.

That being said, following the widely expected approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., Bitcoin’s price trajectory may well follow in the footsteps of gold, but it will likely happen “much faster” due to its limited supply and scarcity-increasing events such as halvings.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) set the filing deadline for updated applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF to Dec. 29, 2023. If companies failed to meet that deadline, they will lose the opportunity to receive SEC approval in early January.

Matrixport platform analysts predicted the likely launch of the product in January 2024. Experts believe that the SEC will allow trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US until January next year. Presumably, trading will begin in February or March.

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